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THE deflationary pressure dragged on last month with a
further dip in the benchmark consumer price index (CPI), but
analysts remain optimistic about the nation's full-year growth
on the back of robust export and capital inflow figures.
On a related front, money supply in the first seven
months of the year largely remained upbeat, the central bank
said Tuesday.
The bank also used the opportunity to answer economists
who have criticized it for not being active enough in
supporting economic growth.
Some economists have called for a scaled-up money supply
to offset lingering deflationary pressures, which are
increasingly reflected in falling prices for consumer
commodities, services and capital goods.
China's CPI dropped by 0.9 per cent in July, the National
Statistics Bureau (NSB) said Tuesday, extending a downward
spiral that started in November.
Broad money supply, or M2, grew by 14.4 percent on a
year-on-year basis to 17.1 trillion yuan (US$2 trillion) at
the end of July, which the People's Bank of China said Tuesday
in its monthly report was in line with the needs of economic
growth.
"With the CPI dropping and money supply growing at such a
pace, it's probably the supply side that is playing the
determining role," said Zhang Xueying, senior analyst with the
State Information Center, a government think tank.
Zhang said major reasons behind July's price drops
probably included increases in the supply of grains, moving
from a warehouse to a summer harvest and growing domestic
supplies of aquarian products due to tightened European Union
sanitary standards.
Grain prices tumbled 2.1 percent last month compared with
July 2001 and aquarian prices fell by 3.6 percent.
According to the NSB, they were the top two biggest
decliners in food, which registered an overall 0.9 percent
price dip in July.
Zhang said an upswing in cheaper imports, which soared by
28.9 percent in July, also depressed prices in the domestic
market.
But the CPI slip did not justify pessimism about
deflationary woes deepening or the economic growth being
scuttled, as unexpectedly strong momentum in exports and
foreign direct investment in the first seven months augurs
well.
"We still need to look at ex-factory prices for
industrial products and capital goods prices," Zhang said.
"We are still optimistic that GDP growth will come
between 7.5 to 7.8 percent this year."
Other money supply measurements, including M1 and M0,
largely grew at similar paces seen in previous months.
Fluidity of money, an issue drawing increasing attention
and measured by M1/M2, continued its stable growth that
started in May to 37.2 percent. Yet, analysts said it was
still inadequate to enable a fouled monetary system to deliver
desirable support for economic growth.
China's M2 includes M1, personal savings, institutional
time deposits and other deposits. M1 includes M0, or cash in
circulation and institutional demand deposits.
Personal savings deposits grew by 18.4 percent from a
year earlier to 8.3 trillion yuan at the end of July.
(SD-Agencies) |