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Superhawk under challenge
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ARIEL SHARON, flush from an election victory seen as a mandate to veto more concessions to the Palestinians, pledged in a symbolic pilgrimage to Judaism's Western Wall on Wednesday that Jerusalem will remain in Israeli hands forever.
Sharon's promise, delivered the day after his decisive win over incumbent Prime Minister Ehud Barak , ran directly counter to a key Palestinian demand for control over Jerusalem's walled Old City and its holy shrines.
Sharon aides suggested on Wednesday that——contrary to reports during the campaign——he would be willing to carry out territorial concessions in the West Bank and even dismantle some settlements.
Aware of the widespread trepidation over his victory, Sharon moved swiftly to reassure world leaders. Campaign adviser Eyal Arad said Sharon would soon send three envoys, including former Defence Minister Moshe Arens, to the United States with the message that Israel is serious about reaching a peace deal.
Sharon's immediate challenge is to put together a government before March 31 when he needs to get the 2001 budget passed in the divided parliament. A failure would spell the end of his rule and force new elections within three months.
Following his victory, Sharon immediately put out feelers to Labour, with a call to Barak just before the defeated premier made a bombshell resignation announcemnt.
Barak said he would quit both parliament and the leadership of the Labour party, which immediately opened the way to a battle for his succession.
"Let's do this together," Sharon told Barak, according to the Yediot Aharonot newspaper. "The majority I received from the public testifies to the fact that we must do it together."
In his victory speech, Sharon said he wanted to form the "widest possible government" including Labour, something analysts say is vital if he is able to survive until the end of his term in November 2003.
Israeli radio meanwhile reported that Labour would organize a primary in the coming months to select a new party chief, while elder statesman and Nobel peace laureate Shimon Peres will take the helm as provisional chairman.
The war of succession will pit those who wish to form a unity government with Sharon against those who fear the party will be tied to an extreme right-wing government.
At the moment when Sharon is about to form his government, a couple of scenarios exist.
The peace process will take a serious halt, where the old policy of Sharon will be dominating: that is a policy of no compromises, and furthered colonization of the West Bank and Gaza Strip through the establishment of Jewish-only settlements on Palestinian owned land.
Sharon will be forced by Realpolitik as well as his own urge to achieve lasting peace. Since he will have problems finding a majority in the Knesset, he will have to compromise for the first time in his life. But also he will have a unique possibility to cut a deal with the Palestinians since there is no important political group to his political right: Sharon will have a great chance to make the hardest Zionist believe in his compromises.
Sharon will not be able to form a powerful government thanks to the weak position of his own political group in the Knesset. Hence, his government will probably not survive more than a few months before a new election (both for prime minister and Knesset) will have to be staged.
Sharon will lead his politics according to old ideas, and the uprising in occupied Palestine will escalate to the point where a war either threatens his position enough to make him resign. Or a war will become the result of Arab states realizing that they have little expect from him and his government.
(SD-Agencies)
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