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Warriors, beasts and pretty women: our picks for the night's biggest winners
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Editor's note: Can Gladiator plunge its mighty sword through that threatening Tiger in the Oscar coliseum? That's the drama looming over this year's awards fight.
Gladiator has the upper hand with the most nominations (12), and it has already displayed amazing muscle at the box office (US$400 million worldwide), but beware: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon scored 10 noms and could pounce--as it recently proved at the Directors Guild Awards.
Meanwhile, Gladiator superstar Crowe is in a fierce battle with Tom Hanks, Ed Harris and Javier Bardem for Best Actor--and any one of them could emerge victorious.
Which contenders will be left standing on Oscar night? The only sure bet is that box-office empress Julia Roberts will finally get her overdue crown. Beyond that, it's anyone's guess. Here's ours:
Best Picture
the contenders
Chocolat
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Erin Brockovich
Gladiator
Traffic
we predict
Last summer, lots of critics dismissed Gladiator as the poor man's Ben-Hur, but then the Oscar bids came out! Gladiator matched the real Ben-Hur nomination for nomination in every category. If Gladiator now equals Ben-Hur win for win, it'll end up with 11 trophies--a tally that set a record back in 1959 and is still unsurpassed today (although it was tied by Titanic in 1997).
Gladiator will win Best Picture this year for this reason: In the past 18 years, the movie with the most noms has won the top prize 17 times. Many feel Tiger can devour its chief rival, but remember what usually happens in Hollywood sagas about man versus beast: The man wins.
Best Director
the contenders
Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot
Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Ridley Scott, Gladiator
Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich
Steven Soderbergh, Traffic
we predict
What ever happened to all the ballyhoo about this being the Year of Steven Soderbergh? Traffic led the Oscar race early on when it came roaring out of the gate with the Best Picture prize from the New York Film Critics Circle, but then it crashed at the Golden Globes and hasn't been able to rev its engine since. Likewise, it'll stall out in this category.
Our money's on Ang Lee, who already won the top prize from the Directors Guild of America. The only rival who can beat him at the Oscars is Gladiator helmer Ridley Scott--and don't make the mistake of dismissing Scott's chances. Over the past half century of Oscar history, the Best Picture winner has failed to claim Best Director honours only eight times--but it looks like this'll be one of those rare split years.
Best Actress
the contenders
Joan Allen, The Contender
Juliette Binoche, Chocolat
Ellen Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream
Laura Linney, You Can Count on Me
Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
we predict
Sometimes, the Oscarfest isn't really a race at all but a coronation for a reigning star overdue for recognition. Julia Roberts rules today as the screen's most successful actress. (Her pictures have grossed more than US$1 billion.) So, come on--it's time for her to claim her chunk of Oscar gold, even if the statuette is merely gold-plated.
Can anyone beat her? There's a remote chance Laura Linney will pull off an upset. She was hailed as Best Actress by the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Society of Film Critics--but alas, those ballots aren't counted. Julia's the gal.
Best Actor
the contenders
Javier Bardem, Before Night Falls
Russell Crowe, Gladiator
Tom Hanks, Cast Away
Ed Harris, Pollock
Geoffrey Rush, Quills
we predict
Tom Hanks is the most beloved nominee--and the most huggable usually wins. But Hanks has won twice already, and no one has ever nabbed three in the top race.
Ed Harris has three strong pluses: He plays a real-life character (painter Jackson Pollock); he portrays a drunk (voters are suckers for that); and he directs the film.
Still, Russell Crowe has Gladiator on his side, and that's a mighty ally. Despite the strikes against him--that "bad attitude" and the Meg mess--voters often like to give a top acting award away with the top pic prize. (Remember: Kevin Spacey won Best Actor last year for his role in Best Picture American Beauty.) We're going with the tough guy.
Best Supporting Actor
the contenders
Jeff Bridges, The Contender
Willem Dafoe, Shadow of the Vampire
Albert Finney, Erin Brockovich
Joaquin Phoenix, Gladiator
Benicio del Toro, Traffic
we predict
Finney is overdue for a Career Achievement Award (just like Julia Roberts), and this would normally be a good category to get it in.
But voters will want to give Traffic one of the top slots, and that'll help Benicio Del Toro. Not that he needs it--he's so hot that voters are sure to pick him.
Best Supporting Actress
the contenders
Judi Dench, Chocolat
Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock
Kate Hudson, Almost Famous
Frances McDormand, Almost Famous
Julie Walters, Billy Elliot
we predict
In Hollywood, the fairy-tale capital of the world, Oscar voters sure love a good Cinderella story. They've crowned plenty of princesses--ie, the offspring of Hollywood royalty--in recent years: Angelina Jolie (daughter of Jon Voight), Gwyneth Paltrow (daughter of Blythe Danner) and Mira Sorvino (daughter of Paul Sorvino). This year, it's Goldie Hawn's daughter--Kate Hudson.
But beware two evil stepsisters in this category--that is, past Oscar champs who could win again: Hudson's Almost Famous costar Frances McDormand and Chocolat star Judi Dench. Voters adore their quirkiness and defiant spirits. Still, we're standing by Hudson and our Cinderella story.(SD-Agencies)
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