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Koizumi faces Herculean challenges
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IN a largely symbolic and landslide vote, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President Junichiro Koizumi was elected last Thursday Japanese new prime minister by the parliament where the LDP and its two junior coalition partners enjoy a majority. Koizumi has tapped his new cabinet members, of which many new faces appeared.
Koizumi, who tried but failed twice before to gain the PM post, won by his reformist reputation. His campaign promises to reform traditional politics and revive the ailing economy with "strong medicines" touched the right chord of grassroots LDP members who have been disgruntled with old-style politics.
Japanese are now waiting for concrete actions by Koizumi to make good on his pledges, which will determine how long he can stay at the top political post. A host of Herculean challenges are lying ahead on Koizumi's road.
The first challenge is whether Koizumi could reform the faction-ridden LDP as promised. Koizumi has vowed to "change the LDP, change Japan" to restore the citizens' trust to the LDP and the government.
In his first signal for change, Koizumi appointed top three LDP executive posts, including No 2 post of secretary general, without following the party's faction logic. The LDP's largest faction led by Koizumi's defeated opponent Hashimoto was excluded from the leadership.
He also wasted no time bringing changes to the government. Last Thursday, he named a record five women cabinet members. His LDP was only accorded two cabinet posts. But analysts doubt whether the idiosyncratic PM could be strong enough in an imminent struggle with the party's powerful conservatives.
If Koizumi fails to gain support from Hashimoto's LDP faction in the parliament, he would have trouble in pushing forward with his reform policies and then it was likely for him to be another short-lived PM. Hashimoto's followers said that they were willing to retreat from the mainstream but warned that the new leader could risk losing co-operation in the parliament if he takes a hostile attitude toward the faction.
The election for the parliament's upper house scheduled for July was considered widely a test for Koizumi's support among the public. If Koizumi maintains his current popularity and lead the LDP to a victory, he would gain more ground inside the party. Otherwise, it would be disastrous for the new government.
The most formidable task for Koizumi is to pull the economy out of longtime recession and cut the country's staggering public debt. How to rejuvenate the ailing economy has become a Sphinx's riddle for Koizumi's predecessors.
The previous LDP-led governments' policy of pouring funds into the sagging economy has not sparked a stable recovery from the decade-long slump. Instead, the government has been in debt to the tune of 506 trillion yen (US$4.1trillion).
Unlike his predecessors, Koizumi pledged to implement austerity economic policies, push ahead with structural reforms and stick to fiscal discipline to balance the budget. His prescriptions also include limiting the maximum amount of new government bond issues to 30 trillion yen and privatizing the postal service to increase the government's revenues.
However, analysts said it is risky to conduct radical reforms which could trigger layoffs, bankruptcies and lower consumer spending. Privatizing the postal service is particularly risky since the sector is a main source of votes for the LDP. Painful reforms, if failing to deliver immediate visible benefits, could cost the LDP's grip on power.
Koizumi also faces tests on the diplomatic front. Koizumi, who has served the health and postal portfolios, lacks experience on the international stage, which, combined with his rightist remarks, could not help mend Japan's soured relations with its two major Asian neighbours, China and the Republic of Korea.
The approval of a highly controversial history textbook by the Mori Government has severely damaged Japan's ties with China and the Republic of Korea. Japan's permission for a visit to Japan by former Taiwanese leader Lee Teng-hui rubbed salt into China's wounds.
Koizumi also claimed openly that he expected a visit to the contentious Yasukuni Shrine as a PM. The shrine honours Japanese killed in war since the mid-19th century, including executed war criminals. Such statements have already drawn criticisms from Asian neighbours. A spokesman of the Republic of Korea's ruling party warned Koizumi against making his rightist remarks into practice saying the move would further strain Japan's links with its neighbours and lead to its isolation in Asia.
Koizumi will also have to find ways to thaw relations with Russia. Japan and Russia have not yet concluded a bilateral peace treaty due to a long-standing dispute over the four Russian-held islets off Japan's northernmost prefecture of Hokkaido.
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