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Maintaining peace in South Asia
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Xiao Yang
THREE years after its widely-condemned underground nuclear tests, India has shown no signs that it is willing to refrain from fueling a fresh nuclear arms race in the tense sub-continent.
When India conducted five nuclear tests from May 11 to 13 in 1998, it sparked a chorus of sharp criticism worldwide and the United States and other recognized nuclear powers refused to recognize it as a qualified member of the world nuclear club. The testing prompted India's archrival Pakistan to respond quickly with six nuclear tests of its own.
A series of recent developments suggest India is still secretly and systematically trying to realize its dream of being a nuclear power, regardless of world calls for nuclear disarmament and the risks of a new arms race. The government of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee seems keener than any previous Indian government to nuclearize the country.
The developments included an alleged plan to test-fire intercontinental missiles, a just-concluded major military exercise near its border with Pakistan, and the country's delicate diplomatic contacts with the USA.
In a rare open report, India's Department of Atomic Energy said last Thursday that India will forge ahead with the research, development and manufacture of a "minimum" nuclear weapons program despite international opposition.
The report, which did not detail how many nuclear warheads India would make under the plan, said the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, near Bombay, would continue to work towards implementing nuclear plans in accordance with national security policies.
India's goal is to become a full-fledged nuclear power capable of hitting global targets with nuclear weapons, and build the country into a world power as advocated by many Indian statesmen.
The US Defence Department's Defence News disclosed last week that India has been secretly developing long-range delivery systems for its warheads. The report said India plans to test its first intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) with a range of 5,000 kilometres in January 2002. An upgraded version of the ICBM, due to come out in 2003, would extend the rage to 12,000 kilometres.
India's Defence and Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh quickly denied the report, claiming that his government has not yet planned to add the ICBM to its weapons development plan. However, India's media reports confirmed the information, saying the ICBM plan lifted off as early as in 1994.
Meanwhile, India's successful launching of a satellite to an altitude of 36,000 kilometres last month with the domestic-made GSLV-D1 rocket proved its ability to produce the ICBM, and its test-firing of the ICBM is just a matter of time.
In fact, if India does intend to establish "a minimum nuclear deterrence" as it claims, the Agni-II middle-range ballistic missile, which India test-fired successfully early this year and has decided to mass produce, is more than enough for the purpose.
While vigorously developing nuclear weapons, the Indian Government, branded as a war hysteric by Pakistan, is training its troops for a nuclear war.
One day after India unveiled its programme for further nuclear weapons development, its largest war game in 14 years, which India said was conducted against "a nuke backdrop," concluded last Friday with a display of firepower in the Pokhran range where the 1998 nuclear tests took place. The Indian Government said it was satisfied with the five-day maneuvres which involved some 60,000 troops, 120 warplanes and hundreds of tanks.
According to news reports and analysts, the war game was aimed at equipping troops to cope with a nuclear, biological or chemical weapons strike. During the exercise, the air force practiced new tactics to shoot down "enemy" planes laden with nuclear weapons.
Other purposes were to convince their neighbours, Pakistan and China, that India has a reliable capability of nuclear deterrence, and to indicate that India's military has maintained high combat readiness since the 1998 conflict in the disputed Kashmir region.
But India's sabre-rattling will only stain its image on the international stage and further strain its tense relations with Pakistan, which is also nuclear capable. India has gone to war three times with Pakistan.
As India's ICBM plan and military exercise hit headlines, analysts also noticed that India is developing ties with the USA, whose missile defence plan seems to be a fairly good pretext for realizing India's military dream. The US missile defenses will not threaten India's security but could yield potential benefits. The action-reaction cycle triggered by missile defenses is likely to drive India closer to the USA.
It is therefore not surprising that India has reacted positively to Bush's missile-defense plan and his call for a broad strategic rethinking of the role of nuclear deterrence when US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's visited New Delhi last week. India's positive response to the NMD plan has betrayed its ambition to be a nuclear power, using NMD as an excuse to further build up its already expanding nuclear and missile arsenals.
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